Reporter Austin Ahlman supplies coverage on the 2024 election about the race in Nebraska and other incumbent elects leading the votes against Donald Trump. 

What should have been a sleepy Nebraska Senate race could now upend national politics. Two-term incumbent Deb Fischer has been caught flat-footed by populist independent and former union leader Dan Osborn, who is giving her the fight of her life in a state Donald Trump carried by nearly 20 points in 2020.

More than just control of the Senate—which professional handicappers rate as strongly tilting toward Republicans—is at stake. If he wins, Osborn’s unapologetic anti-corporate message would throw a wrench into the business-friendly approach of both parties. Republican incumbents in safe seats could be threatened by a formidable new type of opponent. It also risks embarrassing national Democrats if a firebrand steamfitter from Omaha is able to accomplish in the heartland what many middle-of-the-road Democratic standard-bearers could not.

As Osborn put it at a recent meet-and-greet in Ashland, “Imagine the ramifications on American politics if Nebraska sends an independent mechanic to the halls of power … Nurses, teachers, plumbers, bus drivers—they can all know they can do the same thing.”

Nebraska’s unique political institutions and history have greased the wheels for a competitive race that, while revelatory in its execution, appears somewhat obvious in hindsight. The nominally nonpartisan unicameral legislature has primed residents to vote for candidates without a Republican ballot line to guide them. Those races typically feature two conservative-leaning nominees trading barbs over whether the other is a closet liberal, making the messaging from Fischer and Republican-aligned groups painting Osborn as a wolf in sheep’s clothing less effective than practically anywhere else in the country. And the state’s cherished (but presumed dead) prairie populist traditions have been activated by a candidate who condemns corruption, unchecked corporate power, and career politicians.

But despite those unique factors and a spate of polling showing a dead heat, national observers have been slow to acknowledge the strength of Osborn’s candidacy, having been burned by recent independent Senate candidates like Alaska’s Al Gross and Kansas’s Greg Orman, who ultimately suffered lopsided defeats once Republican money came pouring in. I myself, a born-and-raised Nebraskan, was skeptical until just a few months ago, when the signs that Osborn’s message had tapped into something different started becoming undeniable.

Read the article here.